Disease Modelling

Strengthening disease intervention and mitigation strategies, for the benefit of public health

Disease monitoring allows governments and organisations to remain informed about the health of a population. Such information is imperative for ensuring public health. Our disease modelling consultancy services empower insightful understanding of the impacts of a disease outbreak and the effects of any potential interventions. This allows critical organisations to effectively plan future mitigation and response strategies to safeguard populations.

Our Disease Modelling Capabilities

Riskaware’s disease modelling consultancy services can be tailored for a variety of incidents and use cases. We have the expertise to develop novel models, enhance existing models, and empower your capabilities with innovative algorithms or robust data inputs in order to add greater insight.

Whatever your need, our solutions provide greater situational awareness about any given disease incident and allow for the planning of mitigation strategies.

From understanding human-to-human disease transfer or vector-borne diseases, to simulating mitigation techniques for any disease outbreak, we can provide the capabilities you need to retrieve actionable intelligence about disease incidents.

disease

Bespoke disease models

Riskaware can build bespoke disease models for both naturally occurring outbreaks and biological incidents caused by humans, such as attacks or accidental releases. This includes bespoke parameters, compartments, and disease characteristics, such as the following:

  • Deterministic and/or stochastic models
  • Combined models e.g. disease and dispersion models
  • Infectious or non-infectious disease models
  • Human to human transmission
  • Vector borne diseases e.g. malaria
  • Spatial disease models

 

Chain

Coupling multiple disease models 

We can couple various disease models with one another, in a modelling chain, or with other related models to create more comprehensive situational awareness.  

One example is coupling disease models with dispersion models, to show the impacts of aerosol releases on a population. Our teams have extensive experience working with integrated indoor and outdoor dispersion models which provide an end-to-end view of a contaminant release. 

Models can be included and exchanged in a plug-and-play approach, so we can create completely bespoke combinations. This flexibility also allows model capabilities to be updated as the situation develops and enhanced by new, innovative technologies or models.  

 

disease spread

State inference

Disease models show the spread of a disease through a population, estimating the number of people at each stage of infection – from susceptible to infected to recovered. We utilise data fusion techniques to improve the accuracy of this process, known as state inference, and produce more reliable predictions about population health and disease spread.

 

Parameter inference

Understanding the rate at which people transition between disease stages is also imperative for creating responsive mitigation and intervention strategies. It enables decision-makers to understand if and when intervention is needed, and helps inform effective resource deployment plans, such as for hospitals.

For example, parameter inference can be used to identify the rate at which infected people require medical care. Having estimates for this parameter allows more accurate predictions to be made for when healthcare facilities might begin to become overwhelmed, allowing mitigation strategies to be devised that prevent this scenario.

Vaccine

Optimisation

Optimising parameters and/or states allows user to understand what measures or properties are needed to achieve a specific goal. Our teams use this technique in disease modelling to help users identify what level of intervention is needed during swiftly changing scenarios, enabling them to respond ahead of time and achieve their objective – whether that’s to minimise the number of deaths, those hospitalised, or the monetary cost of an outbreak.

Our Disease Modelling Consultancy Services

Our consultancy services can be applied to many complex and evolving scenarios in order to aid readiness planning and targeted response that uses resources most efficiently. Some past applications have included understanding the various stages of disease outbreaks and spread, their impact on populations, and the effects of civil or private response actions. 

Disease detection

Our biosurveillance algorithm allows the detection of outbreaks ahead of traditional techniques, using novel Bayesian data fusion, providing early warning and greater situational awareness. 

Disease monitoring

State inference allows organisations to reliably monitor the number of individuals at each stage of infection and to evaluate the likely lifecycle of a disease in order to inform what, if any, intervention is necessary. 

Disease mitigation

Our consultancy can support the investigation of the potential impact of different mitigation techniques, for both future and ongoing scenarios, and help to identify the most appropriate level of mitigation to achieve defined goals. 

Explore our BioAware Solutions 

BioAware, the Biosurveillance Data Fusion and Forecasting System is a highly sophisticated biosurveillance (BSV) tool which aims to detect, classify and model disease outbreaks ahead of traditional detection means. 

BioAware

Find out more about BioAware

 

Projects & Partners

We have worked with government organisations, scientific bodies, and health institutions to deliver bespoke disease modelling capabilities and expert consultancy in response to real-world challenges as well as ongoing biological incidents.

  • We worked with the University of Liverpool to develop and deliver a novel biosurveillance algorithm that can fuse and process healthcare data from multiple sources to Dstl.
  • We have modelled a ‘what-if’ anthrax release scenario and the subsequent impact of anti-biotics on the population.

 

“Riskaware has been supporting the UK government COVID-19 response. Riskaware’s expertise has been instrumental in implementing the CrystalCast method to collate model forecast data and produce charts of both individual and combined model predictions, supporting the simplification of scientific advice informing decision-makers and the government’s response.”

 


 

Advanced disease forecasting to predict outbreaks and anticipate population impact 

Our team worked with Dstl to create a new bespoke product, CrystalCast. This disease forecasting tool combines multiple epidemiological models to predict outbreaks and anticipate impacts on the population. 

Download our CrystalCast product sheet

Detect, classify and model disease outbreaks ahead of traditional means

BioAware is an advanced biosurveillance data fusion and forecasting system for defence, military, environmental and large commercial applications. It combines information fusion and dynamic models to deliver optimised, accurate and efficient biosurveillance services.

Download our BioAware product sheet

Get In Touch

Are you looking for more information about Riskaware, our products or services?

Get in contact with us by filling out the form or call the office on +44 (0) 117 929 1058 and a member of our team would be happy to help.